Hi all,

Inside today’s main piece I’m beginning my look ahead to the weekend’s action. Plus, there's a preview of today's North Wales National at Bangor.

Henderson Has Constitution Problem

A couple of weeks ago I shared these thoughts with you.

“There’s plenty of noise that Constitution Hill isn’t having the best of preparations for next month’s race. If those more negative rumours are correct, then the 3/1 available about State Man for the Champion Hurdle could be value”.

It was reported in the Racing Post that Constitution Hill has had his second dirty scope in a month. That follows on from what I mentioned in Monday’s column that trainer Nicky Henderson has seen six of his last seven runners pull up.

The news of another yet bad scope saw him drift to second favourite behind State Man on the Betfair Exchange. It looks like Friday will be the key day as Constitution Hill will be re-scoped. Should that also prove poor he won’t be running in the season’s Champion Hurdle.

Focusing a horse's campaign on a single race leaves you open to this situation.

Parliamentary Debate on Affordability Checks Petition

I’m not sure if you watched MP’s debate the petition calling for affordability checks to be scrapped at Westminster Hall on Monday. If you haven't it's worth watching.

Initially, the attendance was significant for such debates, although it thinned out by the end.

Having watched the entire three-hour session, I couldn't help but notice a few things. Many speakers began by admitting they weren't experts on the subject, yet proceeded to speak at length, often revealing their lack of understanding. Several relied on questionable statistics, which, when repeated often enough, seemed to solidify into facts. It's concerning that these individuals will be responsible for legislating on topics they don't fully comprehend.

In essence, the debate revolved around MPs expressing concerns for the future of horse racing while also advocating for the prevention of problem gambling. Some proposed separating horse racing betting from online casinos, but this idea was dismissed by the Minister, who cited that some addicts also bet on racing.

Two anti-gambling MPs argued that affordability checks could save lives. Despite their concerns, all MPs emphasized their desire not to harm horse racing and stressed the importance of a ‘frictionless’ process. However, whether this will be achieved remains to be seen.

Conor McGinn, the MP for St. Helen's North was notable for advocating on behalf of punters. In the end, after three hours of debate, Gambling Minister Stuart Andrew concluded by acknowledging the concerns but affirmed the government's decision to proceed with affordability checks as proposed by the Gambling Commission.

Lee Mottershead provides an optimistic end to his Racing Post piece on the debate stressing that victory could still be snatched from the jaws of defeat. Personally, I don’t see it. The government’s position is clear affordability checks are coming it’s just matter of who frictionless they are.

Looking Ahead to the Weekend – Part 1

This Saturday’s big race action sees Premier Racing cards at Kelso and Newbury.

Kelso’s hosts the day’s most valuable race the bet365 sponsored Morebattle Hurdle (2:50) which has £120,000 on offer in guaranteed prize money. There’s also a £100,000 bonus up for grabs if the winner of the race can follow up at the Cheltenham Festival.

At Newbury the feature race of seven race card is the BetVictor Greatwood Gold Cup (1:55). There’s also a potentially competitive card at Doncaster where the highlight is the Grimthorpe Handicap Chase (3.45).

ITV are covering the best of the action from Kelso (four races), Doncaster (three races) and Kelso (two races).

Kelso: bet365 Morebattle Hurdle (A Handicap Hurdle) – 2m

Typically, on Wednesdays, I analyse the upcoming Saturday's major betting race from a trend's perspective. However, this week presents a bit of a challenge as the most valuable race, the Morebattle Hurdle, has only been a handicap for three seasons. Consequently, there aren't enough significant statistics to delve into deeply. Nonetheless, I'll still examine the race but from a different angle.

For those of you who enjoy my insights into big race trends, don't worry—I'll be scrutinizing Newbury's Greatwood Gold Cup in Thursday's column.

The decision to change the Morebattle Hurdle into a handicap in 2021 was a smart one. Prior to that the previous four renewals had attracted exactly four runners each. Since it became a handicap the field sizes have been 14, 11, & 16.

Twenty-six were left in this year’s race at Monday’s final confirmation stage so there’s a good chance we’ll get 16 runners for this year’s race.

Contenders

Nicky Henderson trained Under Control is the sponsor's 7/2 ante post favourite. The mare bounced back to form last time when runner-up to Mares’ Hurdle second favourite Ashroe Diamond in a Grade 2 at Doncaster. There are races to be won with her if reproducing her last time out effort off her present mark.

Black Hawk Eagle has won his last two starts at Wincanton and Hereford. A 6lb rise in the weights and in a better race makes life tougher but he’s going the right way and is open to improvement. Of those at the front end of the betting he’s the one I like most.

Last year’s winner Benson must be considered once again. A winner at Musselburgh two starts back (2m 4f) he looked like he could have done with further when a 3-length 4th of 13 back at that venue last month. They went a strong gallop in last year’s race and that’s what he wants back at 2m. If gets the strong pace he needs, there will be no stronger finisher. Yard in good form.  

Live Outsiders

Milldam gained a third success over hurdles when winning at Catterick 19 days ago. There was plenty to like about his attitude at the finish last time.  The more rain the better and needs to jump better than he did last time but remains on a decent mark.

Salsada ran Epatante to 6 ½ lengths when runner-up to the smart mare in a Grade 2 at Doncaster last January. Seemed to confirm that improved form when a 9 ¼ length 5th of 10 to Rubaud in Scottish Champion Hurdle at Ayr last April. Not been seen since Ayr and does need a sound surface so may not run. Trainer Brian Ellison won this with Cormier in 2022.

N’Golo is potentially well handicapped on his win in the valuable Swinton Handicap Hurdle at Haydock in May 2022. We haven’t seen the 9-year-old since he ran dreadfully in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham later that year. I suspect he won’t be primed for this but looks overpriced at 50/1.

Sans Bruit would be an interesting runner from the Paul Nicholls yard. Looking at the Timeform rating’s he’s on a good mark based on his French form. There was a bit of promise on his stable debut 7^th of 13 at Doncaster 35 days ago. A multiple winner in France, the hood he normally was left of at Doncaster. 25/1 could look big on Saturday if he was to run.

Morebattle Hurdle Verdict:

Ihaven’t had a bet in the race yet and won’t until final declarations are known. At the prices I’m happy to take on Under Control. Benson is high on the shortlist for obvious reasons as is the improving Black Hawk Eagle.  Of those at big odds Sans Bruit and N’Golo make some appeal.

Wednesday Preview

Bangor have rescheduled the Broughton Hall Estate North Wales National Handicap Chase cardthat was lost to the weather earlier this month.

Bangor

Ten have been declared for the North Wales National. The race’s competitiveness is underscored by the fact that the bookies were going 9/2 the field on Tuesday afternoon.

3:20 – Broughton Hall Estates North Wales National Handicap Chase (Class 4) – 3m 5 ½ f

Duke Of Deception has been steadily progressive on three starts this season and was a good second at Aintree last time. He drops a notch in class here and must have a chance.

Gold Emery ran much better than on his seasonal reappearance when a head 2^nd of 6 at Haydock 60 days ago. Stamina to prove but just 1lb higher than last time and should be in the mix.

Whydah Gally proved his stamina and jumped well when beating 8 rivals at Lingfield 15 days ago. That was his first win over fences and even with a 6lb rise in the weights remains on a competitive mark. Definite claims if he can back up his Lingfield performance which is not guaranteed.

Notachance isn’t the horse he used to be, but the handicapper is giving him a chance. He’s now 13lb lower than when a 3 ¾ length 3^rd of 13 in last season’s Classic Chase at Warwick. Likes the ground, stays the trip and is down in class but does need to revive.

In Rem is a slow boat which is no bad thing for a race like this on heavy ground. Now 2lb below his last winning mark and has place claims on a going day.

Steller Stream want close at Lingfield three starts back and bounced back from a lesser run when 4 ¼ length 3^rd of 13 at Chepstow 29 days ago. The first time cheekpieces are applied which makes him of interest.

Ali Star Bert made it 4-11 over fences when winning at Southwell 26 days ago. That was a career best by the 8-year-old and although he’s now 4lb higher is capable of defying it.

Wednesday Selection:

Today’s selection is from Bangor but it’s not from the feature race. Instead, I’m looking for a winner later on the card.

Bangor

4:20 – Trainer Jedd O’Keeffe is 2-6 with his runners at Bangor in the past five years. His sole runner at the track today Mr Bramley in this Class 3 Novices’ Hurdle. The 6-year-old has finished runner-up on his last starts in bumpers and looks interesting on hurdle debut stepped up to 2m 3f.

Mr Bramley

Good luck with your Wednesday bets.

John