by Dave French

April 27, 2012

Apology: I was away at a funeral all day yesterday and thought that I had scheduled the tip to be published on time for you, but things went wrong, sorry.

The selection finished third so missing it saved a lost bet.

Here is the full article from yesterday and below we have a football bet for Saturday.
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Today we have a guest post from Malcolm Pett from www.greyhorsebot.com
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I must admit I have never been a great fan of systems that give you a min or maximum odds range in their results.

You normally find this restriction in lay systems.

It will be worded something like this…

“… before placing you lay make sure that the price is not less than 4.00 and no more than 12.00…”

Sometimes lay systems to do not even quote exchange prices but instead use fraction odds which should concern you immediately.

As we all know exchange prices and SP odds are unlikely to be similar.

And anyway why would you even quote fraction odds on a lay system?

But that aside when you have a min odds limit you are actually going against the way the exchanges work.

Let me explain just in case this is new to you.

Betfair and Betdaq in order to work need to match as many bets from both sides as possible.

And the only way to do this efficiently is to have scope to match the bets at the “Best price possible”.

This makes exchanges works and allows the prices to move up and down.

This means that if you put a lay bet into the market at 4.00 you are actually giving the exchanges permission to match your lay at 4.00 or under.

And this is the very reason why lay system (or back) that give you a strict price range are flawed.

In reality the price that you get matched at will probably not be much different to the price you asked for.

But if you are on a steamer just before the off then it can get worse.

An often a few ticks down on the lower price range can spell disaster on many lay systems.

Let me give you an example of what I mean.

If you download this excel spreadsheet you can follow along.

http://www.greyhorsebot.com/mal-lay.xls

The results are from a lay system I have been testing out using a system I came up with.

Just so you know the prices are taken directly from the Grey Horse Bot which is the bot I am using for the experiment.

At the moment I am testing all prices because I want to see the full results but as with any lay system you have to be sensible and have maximum price in mind.

A top limit is fine because the exchanges will not match at a higher price than you asked for when laying.

I normally say around 10 to 12 (13) with a system like this but risk is a personal thing.

You will see that in the spread sheet I have allowed you to change your start bank, stake, max odds and yes in this case min odds!

As you can see taking all the selections (min 1.00 – Max 13.00) then the system shows 19pts profit I suppose this is not bad for the 9 days of results (At the time of writing) .

It doesn’t take much to see when studying the selections that many of the losers come from the lower price range.

Now if we increase the Min odds to 5 (stay with me on this) getting rid of many of the lower priced losers the profit goes up to just over 26pts

And if we raise the minimum price to 6.00 then that improves our profit to over 32pts.

So if I was peddling this system I may say that you should not “lay below 6.00”.

But I know that the way the exchanges work makes that impossible.

So let us just do one more thing…

Put the min odds up to 7.00. Now this is interesting because profit has gone up to over 38pts.

This means we now have some movement because as long as we get matched from 5 to 13 then we will have a reasonable amount of profit but the nearer we get to 7 the better.

So we can now put our selections into the market at 7.00 knowing that it doesn’t matter if we end up getting matched at a lower price.

Of course there is still a chance we may get matched under our min price of 5 but this would probably be a rare occurrence and this system (so far) is making profit at any price.

We just want to try and stay above 5 for our “optimum profit strategy” (OPS).
Thank you for reading I really appreciate it.

Malcolm
http://www.greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

For Saturday we have a football selection courtesy of Football Bets (please visit their site at www.football-bets.co.uk)

3pm Yeovil v Chesterfield

A game that doesn't mean anything to Yeovil but means everything to Chesterfield, who are fighting

for their lives against relegation. They are on a fantastic run, whilst Yeovil are certainly not but for me

these are the games that the Books tend to get wrong, placing too much emphasis on the “must win”

philosophy. On my own Ratings I have Yeovil as a 13/10 chance but we can get much better than that,

so in my view we have plenty of value and that is all I ever look for.

Back Yeovil to beat Chesterfield @ 17/10 with Bet Victor for 1 point

Disclaimer: All views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of TGH Trading Ltd or it's employees.

About the author 

Dave French

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  1. Sorry, but Malcolm’s piece seems like complete rubbish to me. On the one hand he says minimim lay odds are garbage, then he does research to determine where to set one.
    The only valid reason to be against minimum lay odds is the same one as to be against maximum back odds. That is that you believe that a few big wins will more than compensate for the inevitable increased number of losses.

    Total crap or what?

    Ian

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