Hi all,

Five days of top class racing gets underway in Sussex this afternoon. Yes, it’s the start of Qatar sponsored “Glorious” Goodwood Festival.  

What makes the festival unique?

Firstly, “Glorious” Goodwood festival has a long and illustrious history, dating back to 1802. It has maintained its reputation as one of the highlights of the British flat racing calendar.

Secondly, it’s the backdrop where the racing takes place. The Goodwood Racecourse is situated on the on the Goodwood Estate, surrounded by stunning South Downs countryside. The scenic location and charming English countryside add to the overall appeal and uniqueness of the event.

If we accept that Royal Ascot is the best racing festival of the summer quality wise. Where does the Qatar Goodwood Festival rank?  Well, I’m biased but I don’t think it’s as good as York’s Ebor Festival.  However, I would rank it ahead of Newmarket’s July Festival and Doncaster’s St Leger Festival.

Five days stretching the quality of the meeting for me, but it’s been five days since 1970 and that’s not going to change.

As I’m doing another Victor Value special this week. My output for the Daily Punt is going to be less and less as the week progresses. Sadly, there just aren’t enough hours in the day for me to do both. Although I have managed to preview the Goodwood Cup and unearthed a significant draw bias in the big handicap at Galway.

Qatar Goodwood Festival – Day 1

The feature race of an eight race card is the Group 1 Al Shaqab Goodwood Cup Stakes (4:35). The undercard also features to Group 2’s the Nicholson Gin Vintage Stakes (3:25) and the World Pool Lennox Stakes (4:00).

ITV’s coverage of the Women’s Football World Cup means its racing output starts later than usual. The first race live on ITV being the Coral Chesterfield Cup Handicap (2:50) and the broadcaster is only covering four races each day this week. That means ITV Racing fans will miss out on a cacking sprint handicap (1:40) that opens today’s card.

As has been the case this summer, it’s all eyes on the weather front and it’s an unsettled picture. If the weather app I consult is right, we could see a fair bit of rain at the track over the first two days. The forecast for the rest of the meeting keeps changing. On Sunday it was suggesting plenty of rain on Saturday afternoon by Monday that had flipped with little rain forecast.  

The going at Goodwood on Monday morning was described as good to soft, soft in places. If the rain has arrived, I can see the meeting getting underway on soft ground.  

Al Shaqab Goodwood Cup (4:35).

The first and second in the Ascot Gold Cup Courage Mon Ami & Coltrane renew rivalry in the Goodwood Cup. They face nine rivals including two from the Aidan O’Brien yard in Emily Dickinson & Broome.

The more rain the better for Emily Dickinson who ran well at last year’s meeting on good to firm ground. Last year’s St Leger winner Eldar Eldarov bids to get his career back on track after a poor run in the Gold Cup.

I think Courage Mon Ami will confirm Ascot form with Coltrane. I’m not sure either would want the ground to ease too much though. Emily Dickinson has nearly five lengths to find with the pair on Ascot Gold Cup running but softer ground suits her much better as we saw last time at the Curragh. Some ease in the ground could also help Eldar Eldarov. Who would be a big threat if bouncing to his best form.

Ocean Wind was returning from a mammoth 771 day break when a 3 ½ length 3rd of 6 to Yibir in listed race at Sandown last time. He showed last time that he has retained plenty of his old ability.  A progressive stayer back in 2020 who ran Stradivarius to length in the 2021 Sagaro Stakes prior to the injury that kept him off the track for so long. On soft ground a big run could be forthcoming and the 40/1 available almost tempted me in.

Goodwood Micro Angle Qualifiers

I did say I would put up any qualifiers from the Goodwood micro angle that I posted up on Thursday.  Well, there are seven of them today with four in the same race.

Three of them I fancy and there’s a fourth who was on the short list for his race. On cue none of them win.

As I wrote last week, if you do follow all the qualifiers, the low strike rate means its going to be a rollercoaster ride over the next five days but the rewards could be good.

1:40 – Whenthedealinsdone

2:50 – Caius Chorister & Paradias

5:05 – Royal Dress, Novus, Choisya  & Shes Hot.

Galway

There’s a another mixed flat & jumping card on day 2 of the Galway Festival.  

Six time Grade 1 winning hurdler Sharjah makes his belated chase debut at the age of 10 in the 2m 2f Beginners Chase (5:40). Fingers crossed the veteran comes through that race safely.

The feature race is COLM QUINN BMW Mile Handicap (6:40). There’s €70,800 on offer to the winner of the race and it’s attracted a maximum field of 18 runners.

The last six winners of the race were all drawn 10+. Looking at the last ten renewals you can see the impact of the draw on the race.  

 

With those drawn in the first of the field being 1 winner from 88 runners, 13 placed. Compared with 9 winners from 87 runners +40.5, 26 placed in the second half of the draw.

For those of you like your trends this a race for you. Besides the draw there are several other interesting trends.

I’m off to Galway for today’s selection but it’s not in the feature race.

Tuesday Selection:

Galway

7:50 – Plunkett posted a seasonal best effort on RPR’s when a 2 length 5^th of 17 at Leopardstown 54 days ago and he’s been dropped 2lb The 6-year-old’s career best RPR came here last September over 1 ½ f further and he’s now 10lb lower. Billy Lee who rode him that day is back in the saddle for the first time this season. He'll ride the selection for luck and if he gets the breaks I see him winning.

Plunkett – 10/1 @ Bet365 (only 13/2 with Ladbrokes & Coral).

Good luck with your Tuesday bets.

John