Hi all,

Inside today’s main piece you will read my thoughts on the weekend’s big jumps performances.

The dry mostly mild weather we have been enjoying is set to continue this week. Bits and pieces of ran are being forecast but nothing substantial is expected in the short term. Clerks of the Course around the country are going to continue to tear their hair out at the situation. None more so than at Cheltenham where they have already started watering ahead of next month’s festival.

Kempton

Kempton was centre stage on Saturday. There were three Grade 2 contests and of course the valuable Coral Trophy Handicap Chase on a seven race card.  The Kempton was officially described as good and looking at the times it was an accurate going description.

Irish Domination of the juvenile division continues

The first Grade 2 on the Coral sponsored card was the Coral Adonis Juvenile Hurdle. Irish challenger Nusret underlined the dominance of Irish trained horses in the division with a decisive success. The winner doesn’t even have an entry in next months Triumph Hurdle. However, he does have an entry for the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle.  It’s a race he looks capable of going well in especially on a sound surface.

It’s the weakest group of British juvenile hurdlers that I can remember, and the Irish form looks well ahead of the home teams.

Solo success

It looks like Solo is finally putting it altogether over fences. The 7-year-old gained a second success over fences when making all to win the Grade 2 Pendil Novices’ Chase.

It wasn’t the strongest renewals of the race, but he jumped well out in front. One who didn’t jump with the required fluency was my pick Boothill. The 8-year-old probably didn’t stay the extended 2m 4f but this has to go down as a disappointing effort.

Solo’s success was a seventh win in the race for trainer Paul Nicholls since 2013. The winner isn’t a Cheltenham horse and is better suited to a flatter track so you can see the trainer aiming him at Aintree. He also seems to go well after a layoff. His record when racing within 60-days of his last start is 0 wins from 11 runs 2 places. Compared to his record when racing 61 day+ – 3 wins from 5 runs 4 places.

The final Grade 2 on the Kempton card the Sky Bet Dovecote Novices' Hurdle also went the way of Paul Nicholls. Rubaud down the field in the Betfair Hurdle last time settled much better and clearly enjoyed being able to do his own thing out in front.  

Runner-up Mullenbeg loomed up to challenge the leader after the second last and for few strides it looked, she might go onto win. However, the mare hung to her right at the last and it looked like the winner wanted it more on the run in.

Power’s Coral Trophy success

It looked a deep renewal of Saturday’s Coral Trophy. Annsam helped to force a strong pace from the off and it wasn’t surprising that finish was fought out by two horses who were more patiently ridden.

Flegmatik racing in the first time cheekpieces looked the most likely winner when heading Annsam three out. However, he didn’t jump the second last to well and got tight to the last. That handed the initiative to the staying on Our Power. To the runner-up’s credit he did rally on the run-in and got within a neck of the winner at the line.  Mind you Our Power doesn’t do a lot when hitting the front.

Connections of Flegmatik will look at this as one that got away. If he had jumped the last two fences as well as the winner, he would surely have landed this valuable prize.  It had looked an unlikely success for Our Power halfway down the back straight but the strong early pace suited him well.

I ended up backing Annsam and Cape Du Nord and rejected the winner in favour of the first named. Not sure why as Our Power goes so well on a sound surface and I had him in my tracker after his Ascot success in October.

The decision vis-à-vis Our Power underlines my poor form over the last couple of weeks. It needs a quick turnaround with Cheltenham just a couple of weeks away. However, I’m consoling myself with the knowledge that I’m trialling a new look at ‘value’ which will go live next month.

Newcastle

There were a couple of non-runners from the line-up in Saturday’s Eider Chase but thirteen still started and it was decent renewal of this marathon handicap.

Coming to the last three were still in contention. No Cruise Yet who had taken it up four out was coming to the end of his tether after travelling strongly. A back to form The Galloping Bear headed No Cruise Yet at the last but couldn’t hold off Kitty’s Light on the run in.

The winner had dropped down to a very winnable mark, and it was a well deserved staying handicap chase success. His win didn’t seem likely when he made a mistake seven out and was having to be ridden along.  He’s a thorough stayer though and his stamina reserves enabled him to get back into the race in the straight.

I said in Saturday’s preview that at 5/2 I would look elsewhere. Well, he was sent off the 7/4 favourite and it was one of those occasions when I was more than happy to miss out on a winner. The first three home were on my seven strong race shortlist which was pleasing enough although my final pick was third.  

The Galloping Bear ran a cracker after disappointing in the Welsh Grand National last time. He would have preferred softer ground and if he has got it might have prevailed.

My pick No Cruise Yet continued to progress upped in class. He might have over raced early in the race which took its toll in the closing stages. Or he may not have quite stayed 4m 1f. I think it could be a combination of the two. There are more races to be won with the likeable 8-year-old especially when his sights are lowered.

Monday racing

There are jumps fixtures at Ayr & Plumpton this afternoon and the action concludes on the all-weather at Wolverhampton this evening.  The racing is moderate, but I have several of interest today and here are four of them.

Ayr

3:50 – So Many Roads got off the mark at the fourth attempt over hurdles when winning over C&D. He’s 5lb higher here but is capable of more improvement. It was heavy ground when he won last month but if he’s as good on quicker ground he can follow up.

Plumpton

3:00 – Sublime Heights edged ahead on the run in to win over C&D last month. Both his career wins have come here, and he goes well on a sound surface. A 5lb rise in the weights makes life harder but I think he can go in again.

3:35 – Mistral Nell has improved with each of her three starts over hurdles. Producing a career best on RPR’s when a 6 ¾ length 4th of 11 at Wetherby 23-days ago. The step up to an extended 2m 4f on handicap debut should see more progress from the mare.

Wolverhampton

7:00 – Wreck It Ryley has improved with each of his four career starts. Getting off the mark at Southwell 15-days ago. Up 3lb but can follow up if improving again.

Monday Selection:

Regular readers know I’m not a big fan of multiples, but I’m tempted by a Yankee bet on the four horses mentioned above.

I’m off to Plumpton for today’s selection and despite the claims of Sublime Heights and Mistral Nell the best value selection is in the ‘lucky last’.

4:10 – Mickyh was in good form last spring on good ground for his previous yard. However, he hasn’t fired at on three starts since joining Neil Mulholland. His poor run this season means the handicapper has given him a chance on the best of his form. Granted he comes with risks attached as to his wellbeing and he’s shorter than expected at 17/2 with Coral. I was hoping for 12/1 and I would advised him each way but that all said he remains today selection.

Good luck with your Monday bets.

John