Tag Archives: betting market

National Hunt Trainer Facts

This morning I'm trying to get a handle on where I want to go with a new National Hunt system, so I'm looking at some facts and figures in the hope that an idea of angle jumps out at me.

So I've logged into Horse Race Base and loaded up all Hurdle runs in 2013 and so far in 2014 and I'm looking at the trainers to see where the best returns are.

If I look at trainers that have had more than 75 runs since January 1st 2013 and sort them by strike rate, then the trainer with the highest strike rate is Willie Mullins…

Runs = 641

Wins = 186

Strike Rate = 29%

Loss at industry SP = -124.03

ROI = – 19.35 %

I'd say a strike rate of 29% from all hurdlers sent out is huge. A loss of 19.35% on turnover is a lot, and although I'm sure that can be improved by betting at Betfair SP I would imagine a lot of these were favourites and that the Betfair SP returns wouldn't be a great deal better.

Interestingly, just down the list a bit is Nicky Henderson with a 24% strike rate but only a 7% loss on turnover…

Runs = 525

Wins = 125

Strike Rate = 24%

Loss at industry SP = -36.75

ROI = – 7 %

So my next task is going to be to have a closer look at the hurdlers of these two trainers.

First off, I'm interested in how many runners Willie Mullins actually sends over to the UK and whether they perform better or worse than his Irish runners.

The answer is that only 61 came to the UK in the period and the strike rate with these 61 was 21% and the loss of turnover was 29%.

So the profit and runners will be in Ireland.

The table below shows the breakdown of the Irish runners by track, you will see there are some huge strike rates at some of the courses…

Willie Mullins Irish Course Run 2013 - 14 table

Next I looked at position in the odds market and this is interesting out of the 580 runs that Willie had in Ireland since January 1st 2013 a whopping 469 were ranked in the first four in the betting market.

How many that were not in the first four in the betting do you think went on to win?

Well according to Horse Race Base the answer is none!

In fact if we only bet Willie Mullins hurdlers that run in Ireland and are in the first three in the betting then we have a system that just edges into profit at Industry SP.

If we only look at those ridden by Paul Townend or Ruby Walsh, who take most of the rides then we have the following figures since January 1st 2013…

Runs = 331

Wins = 139

Strike Rate = 41.99 %

Profit at industry SP = 22

ROI = 6.65%

That's a great strike rate and if you can't stomach losing runs then these rules will find you bets that see you collecting regularly, but these horses are over bet, especially when Ruby is on board, so the profit isn't huge.

Today's Selection

2.40 Redcar Mixed Message – win bet – 5/6 Bet 365

 

 

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Take Advantage of the Frankie Factor

Do you remember the day that Frankie Dettori went through the card at Ascot?

If you don't remember then you have surely heard of it.

As the meeting progressed the bookies realised that they had 50p and £1 accumulators running into 6 figure liabilities.

And so they slashed the prices on Frankie's mounts.

In the last Fujiyama Crest should have been a 12/1 shot, but the weight of money from the big bookmaker chains forced that in to 2/1 to limit their liabilities.

And in reality the money they sent to the course should have shortened it to odds on, but for the brave on course bookies who decided a 7 timer was impossible and to lay it for all they had.

Barry Dennis stood it for £23,000 (this was 1996) when his previous biggest losing day had been £5,000.

He was convinced he had done the right thing. He was laying a 12/1 shot at 2/1, you can't get better value than that!

Gary Wiltshire was much bolder about taking the value and faced liabilities of £800,000 and a very difficult few years, having had to sell his house and cars.

Of course things have changed since then, with everybody linked up to Betfair.

But small stake accumulators still have an impact on betting markets and today I have details of a free system which exploits this situation to make us regular profits.

Go get it here – Click Here

Today's Selection

York 3.15 Astaire – win bet – 13/2 Bet Victor

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Double or Nothing Trading

I've written about Double or Nothing in play trading, or Dobbing,before, but that was over 18 months ago so many readers won't have seen the original article.

The reason I've returned to Dobbing today is that I've just read an interesting article in Betting Insiders that gave a secret but free source of selections for your trades.

So to recap here is the explanation of Dobbing that we shared previously, written by Dave Renham…

Dobbing is a term I came across a few years back – I am not sure where it originates from, but essentially a ‘DOB’ means ‘double or bust’. Essentially if we win, we double our original stake, if we lose we ‘bust’ or lose our stake. I am concentrating on the idea of dobbing by utilizing the in running betting markets. It may be easier to explain by giving you an example:

Let us imagine you back a horse pre race at 8.0 for £10; in order to create a potential DOB you try and lay at half the odds for double the stake – so a lay at 4.0 for £20.

If the horse hits 4.0 or lower in running, your lay bet will be matched and regardless of the result you will win £10 (less commission).

Here is the simple maths behind the two potential winning outcomes – if the horse goes onto win the race you get £70 returned from the ‘back’ part of the bet; you lose £60 on the ‘lay’ part of the bet giving you that £10 profit; if the horse does not go onto win, you lose your £10 stake from the ‘back’ bet, but gain £20 from the lay stake – again giving you a £10 profit. Of course if the lay part of the bet is not matched you will lose your £10.

Dobbing is well worth looking into and if you want to do it yourself basically you want to look for horses that you think will run prominently.

The easier profits probably come from bigger priced selections that you think will be up with the pace and on the National Hunt will jump well.

But you can also bet shorter ones that you think will win or go close.

For example if your fancy is 3/1 before the off then it needs to drop below even money for you to get your profit.

If you follow a tipster and you want to find out if it would be profitable to use their selections as Dobbing selections then you can research this by checking the Betfair results page and comparing the Betfair Starting Price with the In Play Low price.

Each time that the In Play Low is half what the Betfair SP is then that would have been a profitable trade.

If you are available during the day consider this as a way of making profit.

If you're a Betting Insiders member check out page 43 of the February 2014 report.

Bot

As you might expect we had a lot of readers interested in the free bot trial and we have emailed the 10 people that were chosen at random. At the moment only 6 of those have replied, if we don't here back from the other 4 today then we will mail another 4 to take their place.

If you weren't lucky this time we will keep you in mind for future freebies.

Today's Selection

6.40 Kempton My Manekineko – eachway bet – 14/1 Paddy Power

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