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Weekend Racing Tips

Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders (http://dailypunt.com/nickhardman) keeps sending winners our way and this week he looks at today's Doncaster card and tomorrows Aintree feature…

Weekend Racing Tips

Our mud-larks ran well at Ascot last weekend with Madame Chiang being the highlight winning at 12/1.  Betfair backers would have been nicely rewarded with an SP of 18.

Not a lot of action this Friday, but I want to highlight the performance of Luca Cumani at Doncaster this season and he has a number of runners this afternoon.

We will also be taking a look at the Old Roan Chase from Aintree that takes centre stage on Saturday.

Luca Cumani is having a solid season and one track where he has done particularly well is Doncaster.  Here are his statistics at the Yorkshire course this season to date:

Runs: 21

Wins: 8

Strike rate (% win): 38%

Strike rate (% place): 62%

Profit to level £1 stakes: £13.51

On Friday he runs:

1.50pm Dreamlike

3.30pm Sleeper King @25/1 (e/w ¼ odds, 5 places)

4.05pm Norway Cross @6/1

4.40pm Kleo @5/1

Dreamlike is a 2yo and Cumani has not had a 2yo winner at the course in the last 5 seasons (0-11). 

I would not be overly concerned by that statistic as he has only had the two 2yo runners up at Doncaster this season.

Overall his juveniles are 7-34 this year at a highly respectable strike rate of 21%. 

Dreamlike made an encouraging debut and there is likely more to come.  The market could be quite informative of her chances and she could go well at a price. 

Sleeper King has failed to progress from a promising 2yo campaign and he has shown nothing in 4 starts this year (form figures 0000).  However, this is his first run for Cumani having previously been with Kevin Ryan.  Caution is advised if you decide to back him. 

Norway Cross is interesting up in trip having won at Windsor last time out and Kleo is still unexposed after two wins this season and a LTO fourth in a Listed race at Yarmouth in September.  These two appear to have the best chances of the quartet.

The jumps season is starting to gather momentum and this Saturday sees the Old Roan Chase at Aintree. 

This year’s renewal looks wide open and a case can be made for many including current favourite Uxizandre, Module, Rajdhani Express and last year’s winner Conquisto. 

At the prices I think there is a bit of value in Conquisto to retain his crown if the ground stays good. 

A lot of the higher rated horses in this race will have other targets such as the Paddy Power Gold Cup and the Cheltenham festival whereas this looks like Conquisto’s main target. 

He is 4lbs lower than when winning this last year and I think he could well have been laid out for this. 

As an each-way alternative then Astracad could outrun his price, especially as he seems to save some of his better performances for Aintree (including a decent 2nd in this last year). 

In 2013 he ran in a 2 ½ mile handicap chase at the Cheltenham October meeting a week before lining up for this.  He has followed exactly the same path this year and with the Twiston-Davies horses running well he can give each-way backers a decent run for their money. 

If the rain arrives and there is a change in the going to soft then Wishfull Thinking would have to enter calculations.  His last 3 wins have come on heavy, soft and soft going.  He is rated 162 but he won twice off this mark last season.

Saturday Aintree 3.00pm

Conquisto @7/1 (if the ground remains good)

Each-way alternatives: Astracad @14/1 & Wishfull Thinking @14/1 (soft or worse) 

8 Years a Winner

If you suffer from loss of nerve when you encounter a losing run with your bets it's probably because you have doubts about the selection method that you are using.

Maybe the fact that it has won every month this year is just a coincidence.

What is a great help with coping with losing runs is to look back at previous results from your selection method and know that it has always profited in the past.

And I'm not talking about back fitted results that have been pulled from a database.

Today I'm talking about a selection method that has been sold every year since 2006 and has made a profit every year since 2006.

Yes, for 8 consecutive years this system has NEVER lost money over the course of the NH Season.

This 100% win rate has helped achieve profits of over £9400 for it's members to just £20 stakes.

I'm referring to Trainer Track Stats which goes live today for the 2014/2015 National Hunt season.

The NH TTS Guide concentrates solely on the runners from the jumps trainers who have consistently shown good profits over the last 5 years. They're not necessarily the biggest name trainers in the business but when it comes to their National Hunt horses they know where, and when, to place them.

And part of the secret to TTS's success is that the list of these winning trainers is updated each year helping to keep TTS fresh and up to date and adapting to the ever changing trainer trends.

For just £79 you can get the guide plus access to the members site where all the days selections are worked out for you.

>>GET YOUR COPY OF TRAINERTRACKSTATS NOW!<< Or for just £19 a month you can spread the payments over the course of the Season whilst still enjoying all the benefits of the full service. Due to the huge following TTS enjoys there is bound to be immense demand for the latest manual and with copies being strictly limited to safeguard the odds for subscribers you need to ACT NOW OR MISS OUT!....... >>GET YOUR COPY OF TRAINERTRACKSTATS NOW!<< Today's Selection

2.20 Windsor Harbour Patrol – win bet – 5/2 Boylesports

Beat The Odds and you Will Profit

Sometimes in life we need to remind ourselves of the fundamentals of whatever we are striving to be successful with in order to get our ship back on course.

With betting the biggest fundamental is value and the easiest way to make money from betting is to make your bets at odds that are better than starting price.

And beat starting price when it is adjusted down for a true market IE the prices make up a 100% chance when all possible outcomes are added up.

Starting price, especially these days with the betting exchange markets is an easy and reasonably reliable indicator of the true price/chance for any runner.

And the easiest and most efficient way to do that these days is to beat Betfair SP.

Betfair SP makes up to 100% and the prices are fair to both backers and layers.

If you can beat the Betfair SP consistently then you will make a profit.

There are tipping services that base their whole selection criteria around betting on horses that are showing signs that they will shorten in price from the morning bookie price to the starting price.

Although that is a winning strategy in itself, a better strategy is to study form and make your own selections, determine your own prices and bet where the early prices are bigger than your assessment.

That can be hard work though and you may want somebody to tell you what to bet to beat the market and if you want to be a winner without the work I would recommend Rory and David of the http://racingconsultants.co.uk

These guys are regularly beating Betfair starting price and consequently they make steady and consistent profits.

They also give a full analysis of every bet they give so you know exactly why they have made each bet.

http://racingconsultants.co.uk

Today's Selection

7.40 Windsor L´Orfeo – win bet – 2/1 Ladbrokes

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