Hi all,

Inside today’s main piece you can read my thoughts on the best of the weekends action on the other side of the Irish Sea including Saturday’s Grade 3 Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse. There’s also a handful of horses who will be worth keeping in mind in the coming weeks. Plus, at the end you’ll get an insight as to what I look for when it comes to odds.

Fairyhouse – Saturday

Eight lined up for this year’s Grade 3 Bobbyjo Chase. Before the race like it could plenty of clues for this year’s Aintree Grand National with six of the eight runners having entries in the National.

The race itself didn’t add much to the National picture with the winner Kemboy not having an entry in the race.

Few National Clues in Bobbyjo

Kemboy the class horse of the race was tasting victory for the first time in two years. The 11-year-old got uncontested lead out in front. Coming to two out he looked ton have the race in control. However, he got tight into the second last and that gave his pursuers a chance. Fortunately, he got the last spot on and he was able to gamely hold off Vanillier by ½ length with Now Where Or When a further length back in third.

Both the runner-up and third put in encouraging performances. Vanillier the 2021 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle winner hadn’t looked a natural over fences, but this was a career best from him. Not subjected to too hard a race. Indeed, he might well have prevailed if his jockey had been more aggressive on the 8-year-old. He holds a Grand National entry and a mark of 147 would make him attractively weighted for the Aintree race. That said he would need to jump better to take advantage of it.

Now Where Or When put in a much improved performance in finishing third. He had a mark of 127 coming into the race and looking at my figures improved by 17lb. He doesn’t have a Grand National entry but depending on how the handicapper reacts should be able to add to his two chases successes.

Of the other National entries. Longhouse Poet only got as far as the first before unseating his rider. The winners stablemate Carefully Selected didn’t jump as well as he had done when winning Thyestes Chase and finished a well beaten fourth. Pencilfulloflead put in lifeless display in fifth and Enjoy D'allen continued his poor run of form in sixth.

Naas – Sunday

The market expected Sunday’s Grade 2 Johnstown Novice Hurdle to between Found A Fifty and Corbetts Cross. The market got it spot on albeit it got them in the wrong order.

Corbetts Cross wasn’t inconvenienced by the drop back to 2m on his first start since joining new connections. A winner at 3m on his last start not surprisingly the 6-year-old was strong the finish and just got the upper hand close to home. 

The winner is blessed with pace and stamina which makes him down as a high class horse. He already looks an exciting chase prospect going forward but a a Grade 1 novice hurdle is surely within his grasp provided the ground isn’t too quick. That win could come in next month’s Albert Bartlett.

It’s possible that he could be supplemented for the Ballymore but for now he only holds an entry in the 3m novice hurdle. The ground will decide where he heads next but provided there is a bit of juice in the ground it seems likely it will be Cheltenham. Now vying for favouritism for the Albert Bartlett should he line-up for that race he will be tough to beat. Mind you he will be tough to beat in a Ballymore to.

Tracker time

Enrilo, trained by Paul Nicholls, who had failed to complete on his last three starts took a step back in the right direction when 6^th or 13 to Our Power in the Coral Trophy at Kempton. His season has been geared to another tilt at the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown. A race he was first past the post in 2021.

I mentioned in yesterday’s column that I thought No Cruise Yet can win again when his sights are lowered. Well there’s another horse to take out of Saturday’s Eider Chase. Eva’s Oskar ran well for a long way when fourth in the race. His stamina for 4m 1f ran out. But he remains capable of being competitive when dropped back in distance. He’s got an entry in the Ultima Handicap Chase on the opening day the Cheltenham Festival. And given he's ground versatile and his two best RPR's have come at the track would be a lively outsider for the race. 

The first of this week’s eyecatchers ran at Fairyhouse on Saturday.

Clonmeen – William P Murphy

Clonmeen, a dual point winner, hadn’t shown much in three hunter chases and was sent of 80/1 for the extended 3m 1f novice chase. However, he outran his odds to put in a much improved performance when finishing a 2 ¾ length 2^nd of 7 to Ballykeel.  Coming into the race he had an official rating of 93. I have the 8-year-old running to mark of 122 in Saturday’s race.  Granted that might be a shade inflated and the handicapper is likely to hike up in the ratings but he should remain competitive when going handicapping.

The second of this week’s tracker horse won at Kempton on Saturday.

Lieutenant Rocco – Syd Hosie

Lieutenant Rocco bounced back to winning ways when winning the 2m 4 ½ f handicap chase at Kempton. The 8-year-old put in an impressive round of jumping when making all on his first start since wind surgery. Given his three previous career wins had come on heavy it was good to see that he can be effective on quicker ground. There must be a doubt as to whether he can back up this excellent effort. However, if he can he’ll remain on a good mark even after the inevitable rise in the weights.

Tuesday racing

If you thought Monday’s racing was moderate, then today’s is even worse. Not one of the twenty races on Tuesday has winner’s prize of more than £10,000.  A combination of poor prize money and quick ground means some shocking field sizes.

Good to firm ground means just 29 runners have been declared for a six race card at Leicester.  Tuesday other jump fixture at Catterick hasn’t fared much better with just 39 runners being declared. Neither course can water during the winter months so there’s nothing either of them can do.

Eighty three runners have been declared for Southwell’s eight race all-weather evening eight card which at least provides punters with some decent sized fields. The Southwell fixture also has the days two most valuable races.

Southwell

6:30 – Trainer James Tate sets a poser as he saddles two of the six runners – Mighty River & Regal Empire. The former was a length 2nd of 6 at Wolverhampton last month and seems likely to give his running once more. Regal Empire is less exposed than his stablemate and won around here (1m) last month. The colt steps up to 1m 3f for his handicap debut and he’s bred to be better over 1m 2f.

Verdict: My initial fancy was the unexposed Regal Empire. But if I do have a bet in the race I would have a saver on the other Tate horse Mighty River.

7:00 – Plastic Paddy made it 5 wins from 23 starts when beating five rivals at Newcastle 10-days ago. Up 4lb but seemed have more in hand than the ¾ length margin of victory suggests. Runner-up that day Chief's Will gets a 3lb pull in the weights with Plastic Paddy but I fancy the latter can confirm that form.

Besides Plastic Paddy trainer Mick Appleby also saddles Alexander James who was a good 4^th of 10 here (7f) last time and has booked Osin Murphy.

Soames Forsyte was a head 2^nd of 10 to Chief’s Will here last time. He gets a 2lb pull in the weights today on his debut for a new yard and racing in the first time hood. Yard is 2 winners from 62 runners -49 10 placed in handicap races with stable debutants. Not the most encouraging of stats but the headgear angle makes him of interest as does he lightly raced profile.

Previous C&D winner Tropez Power is 2lb higher than when a ¾-length 2nd of 10 at Lingfield 25-days ago and shouldn’t be far away if in the same form.

Odds Verdict:

Going through the form I have this down as a five horse race. Theoretically each one has a 20% chance of winning; that’s 4/1 in terms of odds. Alexander James is best priced 9/4 but even with the booking of Oisin Murphy I would want 3/1/7/2.

The other four horses that I mentioned are all value odds. Indeed, you could back them all and you would hopefully make a profit on the race albeit a small one. In this case its not something I will be doing.

The value pick at the time of writing on Monday evening is Soames Forsyte.

Tuesday selection:

Mickyh bounced back to form to finish second at Plumpton but was not match for the improving winner.

Southwell

7:00 – Soames Forsyte – 17/2 @ Coral.

Good luck with your Tuesday bets.

John