Hi all,

Monday’s column is normally my look back at the weekend’s big race action. Given there wasn’t much of it I’m doing something a bit different today.

I’m starting with a few thoughts on why the new whip rules are going to have a big impact on punters.

Adapt or Die

The new whip rules seem to have come in without too many issues. The fears of the ‘doom and gloom’ pundits haven’t come to pass and the jockeys have adapted to them quickly.

The jockeys have adapted, and we punters have to as well. The game is starting to change. Jockeys seem to me to me to be waiting as long as possible before using the whip. That’s going to be important for us punters.

You’re going to have to look for strong travelling, bridle horses.  We already know that front runners win more than their share of races and that its going to be accentuated by the new whip rules.

This all means the end for the lazy chasing type who need stocking up early in a race. Although its real impact will only become noticeable at the start of the next winter jumps season. It’s also something worth keeping an eye on when it comes to your punting on the new flat season.

If jockeys and punters are having to adapt to the new environment, then so will breeders.

The trends in the breeding world have been towards speed rather than stamina for a couple of decades now. Those trends will only accelerate due to the new whip rules as the need to breed for speed gathers even more momentum.

Yes, the game is changing. The old saying “adapt or die” couldn’t be more appropriate. The horse racing betting environment is going to change quickly.  Those punters who don’t adapt quickly are going to be in trouble. The more rapid the pace of change means poor outcomes for those sticking to the old ways.

Weekend Review

Just a week after the Cheltenham Festival. It was not unsurprisingly a quiet weekend on the jumping front. Newbury and Kelso provided the NH action. Whilst both cards lacked the star names the racing was competitive enough.

Across the sea It was the start of the new flat season at the Curragh on Saturday and the action continued at Naas yesterday.

The year seems to have flown by, doesn’t it? The flat has started in Ireland and the new season begins in Britain with the Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster on Saturday.  More on that race in Wednesday’s column.

The flat returns at the Curragh

Just eight days on from the Cheltenham Gold Cup and suddenly it was the start of the Irish Flat season.

Kevin Stott’s new tie up with Amo Racing got off to a winning start with Bucanero Fuerte taking the first juvenile race of the new Irish Flat season. The son of Wootton Bassett produced a smart performance and is clearly an above average juvenile. He is either a very good mover or he just relished the testing ground.  Given his full brother Beat Le Bon was very effective on quick ground there are grounds for optimism that he can do just as well on a sounder surface.

The first big flat handicap the Paddy Power Lincolnshire produced a race of changing fortunes. Coming to the final furlong it looked like British challenger and race favourite Totally Charming had come with a winning run. However, he was run down in the final half furlong by Saltonstall who was caught on the line by Lattam.

The winner, trained by William Haggas, had looked an unlikely winner 1f out but once in the clear he came with a storming run to take the winner prize across the Irish Sea.

I was on Casanova (40/1)who was neck back in third. Sadly I was on win only. Mind you I wasn’t expecting him to go off at 40/1. Like the Lattam he came with a late run. And for a few strides I though he was going to win but he wasn’t coming home quite as quick as the winner.

Meydan World Cup

If you were looking for higher quality action the on Saturday, then Meydan was the place to be for World Cup Night.

Broome got the perfect ride from Ryan Moore to win the Group 2 Dubai Gold Cup. The 7-year-old who must have even more air miles than Nick Luck has been a wonderful performer for connections. In a race that was a run at a good gallop he proved his stamina for two miles.

The 2021 Ascot Gold Cup Winner Subjectivist came on for his recent return from a 618-day layoff to finish 5 length third and did best of those who were close to the strong pace. He will need to take another step forward from this if he is to compete with Kyprios in this season’s Cup races but it’s not inconceivable that he can.

Lord North gained a third successive win in the Dubai Turf. Last year he dead heated for the first prize having been set a bit too much to do. No problem this year as the 7-year was closer to the modest early pace and won with more in hand than the ¾ length margin of victory suggests.

The least said about my selection Vin De Garde the better. He was only a nose behind Lord North last year and a 3 length runner-up in 2021. This year he was dropped into the rear and finished a 27 length 14^th of 14. It was a woeful run and summed up my week on the punting front.

Equinox is a middle distance superstar!

Equinox produced a ‘wow’ performance to win the Group 1 Sheema Classic. Jockey Christophe Lemaire sent the the winner to the front, and he was able to dictate the pace. He went for home 2f out and he cantered clear to win by a heavily eased 3 ½ lengths. In the process of winning, he broke the track record without being seriously asked a question.

This was just Equinox’s seventh career start, and the 4-year-old could be capable of even bigger performances. The bookies quickly cut him to 6/1 for the Arc on the back of this impressive performance. However, the Arc is likely to be run on soft ground and there will be better targets for him this season like the Breeders' Cup Turf or the Japan Cup.

It was a third win in the race for a Japanese trained runner and that country’s middle distance horses must be the best in the world on quick ground.

The Japanese also landed the nights feature race the $10 million Dubai World Cup with Ushba Tesoro.

It turned out to be brutal dirt race and was run at ferocious pace from the off. When the strong travelling Algiers took it 1 ½ f from home he looked set to win for Simon & Ed Crisford. However, his stamina started to give way inside the final furlong, and he was caught close home by the winner. The race was set up for the deep closers and the winner won’t get such a scenario very often going forward.

It was a grand effort from Algiers who was close to the strong pace. He proved he’s a Grade 1 performer on dirt and could be capable of mixing it with best dirt horses in the US this year.

Monday Racing

Wincanton, Lingfield and Wolverhampton provide today’s actioned it’s the latter track that provides today’s selection. Its not much of a price and given my present form it might be more a lay than back bet. 

Monday Selection:

Wolverhampton

7:00 – Coco Jamboo won a Newmarket nursery on her final juvenile start and returned from a six month absence with a 2 ¼ length 2nd of 5 over C&D 16-days ago. She remains capable of better and may just have needed her recent return to action.

Coco Jamboo – 2/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.

Good luck with your Monday bets,

John