Good morning all,

I hope you've all had a successful week punting away at Cheltenham. I've not had many winners but had my foot down at the right times, and an old friend in Third Wind dug me right out yesterday. He looked a picture of health in the paddock and I couldn't resist.

Anyway, I fear it'll all be about Colonel Mustard on this final day, but for my thoughts on the other TV races, read on…

1.30 – JCB Triumph Hurdle

A race with a nice each-way shape to it, with a few no-hopers likely to line up, and a market dominated by the Irish pair Vauban and Pied Piper. The assumption is that these two are head and shoulders above the rest, with little to separate them, but I’m not quite seeing it that way.

The Brits are starting to look a touch overpriced to me. The ground has come right for Porticello and whilst his hurdling can sometimes be a worry, he’s far from discounted. I can also see both the battle-hardened Knight Salute and in particular Doctor Parnassus having a hand to play in the finish.

I like the way Dan Skelton tried the mercurial Doctor Parnassus over 19f at Taunton. You need that sort of stamina to win a Triumph and whilst he didn’t always put it in on the Flat, hurdles seems to have transformed him and the way he attacked them at Taunton signified a horse enjoying himself. Given his temperament, there’s always the chance he’ll suddenly not like it, but as things stand, I think he’s a major player here.

2.10 – County Hurdle

How Colonel Mustard has been allowed to get in off 140 remains a mystery. His second to Jonbon at Ascot looks all the better now, as does his third to Sir Gerhard at Leopardstown last time, and even with another 6/7lb on his back he’d have looked very attractive. Basically, here’s a horse that’s been plying his trade in Grade 1 and 2 races this winter back in a handicap on a hugely attractive mark. It’s Colonel Mustard, on the racetrack, with devastating authority. #racingcluedo

Tax For Max is a lunatic and pulls too hard for his own good, but I’ve always had my suspicions a race like this might suit and have his kahunas off since last being seen might well help the situation too. He’s had a break so is fresh for this, will handle the ground and if it all comes together, he’ll be one of the last off the bridle. Play him as a back-to-lay by all means, but each-way with the extra places makes some appeal too.

2.50 – Albert Bartlett

This year’s tater race looks a good one and I’m delighted to see Hillcrest take his chance. It was very much in the balance, with Henry Daly saying he was in no rush with the horse (over fences, he could be some star) but after a good piece of work at the weekend, he is going to run. I really like the horse, as I tend to do with most of the late Trevor Hemmings’ horses (they usually have plenty of substance to them) but he has speed as well, which plenty of them don’t. The way he quickened twice at Haydock last time was a joy to watch, and with the rain coming, it’s only enhanced his chance, in my opinion. Lots to like about his chance and I hope he’s the real deal.

Ginto looks the best of the Irish but whilst breeding suggests a step up to 3m is going to suit, I like to see something proven for this rather than a might be, especially at the price. If he wins, fair enough, but at a much bigger price and with extra places I’ll take a swing at Brorson. He didn’t get in the Pertemps and has a mountain to climb on the figures, but he’s improving, acts on the track and stays well. Don’t forget, we’ve had 33-1 and 50-1 winners of this in recent times, both of which were hard enough to find, so don’t be scared to take a pop at something at a price if you fancy it.

3.30 – Gold Cup

I’ve warmed to the chance of Galvin over the past few weeks. At the start of the season I didn’t think he was good enough, but he’s improved enormously, and his Savills Chase win marked him out at a true Grade 1 horse. Couple that with his NH Chase win here last year and you’ve got the ideal mix for a Gold Cup winner.

If, as I suspect, the Savills Chase form is the form to concentrate on then the reverse forecast with A Plus Tard makes some sense too. Last year’s Gold Cup runner-up turned in an imperious performance in the Betfair before running Galvin to a short-head in the Savills, only being worn down late. There’s a case that says De Bromhead’s weren’t running great at Christmas and so the fact he was able to perform to such a high level can only speak well for his chances here. In the main I agree with that, but Galvin’s superior stamina can win out again, particularly now the rain has come.

Minella Indo, for all that was a better run at Leopardstown, has a bit to prove for me. I still don’t think he’s the same horse as last year and the figures bear me out on that. The cheekpieces experiment for the King George still weighs heavy on my mind and signifies they didn’t know what the issue was at the time either. Plenty to prove now at the prices and place lay material for me.

There are some good noises coming from the Skelton camp regarding Protektorat, but a defeat of an about-to-be-retired Native River at Aintree does not equate form-wise with what Galvin and A Plus Tard have done this year. Royal Pagaille, for all he’s a grand sort, has shown a couple of times he’s not quite this level (although the rain Wednesday will have helped) and is better giving weight away to lessers, and I still think Tornado Flyer might have been better off in the Ryanair. So for a outsider it has to be Santini, as likely to get lapped as go close, but he looked a lot happier when second to Chantry House last time and he’s simply got too many decent efforts at Prestbury to be written off for a place again. If Nick Schofield can keep him sweet early, he could pick up a minor medal.

Today's selection – Colonel Mustard (e/w) in the County Hurdle

Good luck with all your bets today,

David.