Isn’t betting a funny thing…
On the one hand we want winners and the bigger the better…
…And on the other we want to win a lot with very few losers.
Big winners and a great Strike rates… Perfect!
Unfortunately it doesn’t quite work like that.
Big winners tend to mean lower strike rates.
Take “Elision” a system we have been testing over at the Grey Horse Bot web site since 28/08/2014.
It has an average winning price of 9.00 (pretty big).
It also has an average strike rate of 13.12% (not so big)
And since we started reviewing the system it has had a winning month of 51.39 and 40.32.
Sounds pretty good…right?
Well not quite…
Averages are funny things. They are made up of high and low figures.
The high ones are great because they produce the big profit months like above.
It’s the low ones that are a pain.
They tend to be the ones where you need to dig deep.
If you have done your homework and understand that longest losing runs do happen then you can ride them out.
If you haven’t then this is where you find out that staking too much from your bank on each selection can really be expensive.
Tipsters and systems have good runs, but they also have times when their natural strike rates adjust.
Whether you call it a “bad run”, “bad luck” or “The system doesn’t work”.
It will happen.
Elision proves this point.
Yes it has had some good months but it also has bad months.
The 28 month history shows us that this is not unusual…
…It’s all down to you and whether you believe the history or think the bad months are the signs of the system going bad.
Don’t ignore statistics… Losing runs will happen and the lower the strike rate the longer these will be and the more often they will happen.
Be prepared and reap, ignore and you will be forever losing.
You can check Elision out here
http://greyhorsebot.com/elision
Thanks
Malcolm Pett
Today's Selection
3:20 Newcastle Up And Go – win bet – 15/8 Sporting Bet