I've just been reading this months Smart Sigger magazine and they have an interesting article about not back fitting your systems.
The article starts off with an analogy to describe what back fitting is, which tickled me :o)
Here's what the writer, Eddie Lloyd said…
Let's use an analogy. You have an air-rifle and decide to have a go at shooting a tree in the safety of your back garden.
You take the first shot at a target stuck to the tree. You have five shots and they all
get very close to the bullseye. Let’s say you get two hits and three just on the outside. Your system of shooting the rifle works.Now let’s take another day and you decide to shoot the rifle at the tree but without the target in place. You look at the holes left in the tree and they’re all pretty much bunched together. You then decide because that looked good to now paint your target around those holes but positioning the bullseye so that you now have more holes in the bullseye.
Your system still works but you have changed history by moving the bullseye to fit the holes that are already there.
More seriously Eddie goes onto say that the number one rule for not having a backfitted system is to make sure all rules are logical.
Personally I always smart and lose all confidence in a system when I see a rule that says something like…
Only back if the horse is priced between ‘even money and 5/2' OR ‘between 7/2 and 12/1'
Er so we can back anything between evens and 12/1 but not if it's 11/4 or 3/1!!!
A surprising amount of systems have ridiculous rules like this that have obviously been added to remove some losers from the past results, either deliberately or naively!
Anyway, you can read the full article, which includes a primer on how to create a system, and the full Smart Sigger July edition when you take a free trial of Smart Sigger – Click Here
By the way on an unrelated note, you can still get a £7.99 trial of Hawkeye Tips which is showing a huge 540% Return on Investment for the last 30 days at Race Advisor Proofing – Sign Up Here
Today's Selection
20:40 Carlisle Mrs Warren – win bet – 11/4 Bet 365