I got involved in an interesting conversation yesterday about the lifetime of a betting system.
So basically the question we were debating is how long will a system remain profitable once it becomes popular.
I guess we all have experience of systems that worked well and then went down hill.
This might happen because somebody sells a system based on the factor that you are exploiting or just because the particular angle becomes better known and understood by punters and bookmakers.
The betting world is constantly moving and angles that were once indicators of value are eventually accounted for in bookies prices and then are no longer value indicators.
This is why services like the Betting Insiders Club are constantly developing new approaches every month, so they can stay one step ahead of the markets.
Although we all had opinions the question of what is the lifetime of a betting system is unanswerable but what we can do is keep an eye on key indicators that will alert us to an imminent decline.
The key thing to watch is the strike rate compared to the return on investment.
If you have a system or angle that has been making profit for you over time and the strike rate is remaining consistent then you can be confident that the factor that the system relies upon is still relevant.
If the return on investment is going down while the strike rate remains the same then it's time to assess the average price of the selections.
If the prices are going down and the ROI is going down then it follows that the selections are now being overbet and the bookmakers and betting public have caught on to your angle and it's time for a new approach.
It pays to keep records not only of your profit and loss but also of the strike rate and ROI of any system or method you are using.
Lay Debutants (Lay at Betfair SP to fixed liability minimum risk £10 per race)
14:20:00 Chepstow 2 Davids Park
14:30:00 Yarmouth 5 Little Tinka
14:30:00 Yarmouth 7 Perspicacity
14:30:00 Yarmouth 9 Weekend Getaway (IRE)
16:05:00 Listowel 6 Lanyard (USA)
16:10:00 Thirsk 9 Hilda Ogden (IRE)
Today's Selection
2.20 Chepstow Mind – eachway bet – 8/1 Bet365, Paddy Power, Bet Victor