First up I want to give you the Betfan free tips link again as I didnt have it working for the first few hours yesterday – http://betfan.com
There's a bit of debate around the office at the moment about the merits of a simple system that backs favourites and then skips a race after a winner, in the expectation that this will increase the strike rate.
Systems like this have been around a long time and to my mind they are doomed as a winning strategy and just for the fun bettor.
But with nothing to write about today I thought I'd share it here to see what you think, tell me in the comments.
“So basically the system is to back the favourite, if the favourite wins then don't bet on the next race.”
I can't think of an easy way to test this over the long term other than manually.
I've just done yesterday and I get -3.12 points instead of -11.24 from backing all favourites!
What do you think?
Peter's Course Specialists
5.25 Newmarket Victrix Ludorum 8/1 Bet 365, Bet Victor
Lay Debutants
14:00:00 Newmarket (Rowley) 3 Chinotto (IRE)
14:00:00 Newmarket (Rowley) 4 Dalarosso
14:00:00 Newmarket (Rowley) 7 Love Tangle (IRE)
14:00:00 Newmarket (Rowley) 11 Mustadaam (IRE)
14:00:00 Newmarket (Rowley) 12 Mustadrik (USA)
14:00:00 Newmarket (Rowley) 13 Norse Star (IRE)
14:00:00 Newmarket (Rowley) 14 Oracle Boy
14:20:00 Pontefract 6 Smart Alec (IRE)
14:20:00 Pontefract 12 Starlite Jewel
16:40:00 Pontefract 3 Deep Resolve (IRE)
16:40:00 Pontefract 4 Man Of Harlech
17:45:00 Wolverhampton 1 Copper Cavalier
19:45:00 Wolverhampton 8 Lookbeforeyouleap
Today's Selection
7.45 Wolverhampton Hidden Belief – win bet – 3/1 Bet365, Paddy Power, Sky Bet, Bet Victor
On the principle of not backing the fav after a winning fav I can’t see the maths in this, we know the ratios of fav wins but there is mothing to prove they don’t win 2 3 or 4 in a row and if you adopt this method I can see you missing some winners but betting on ALL the losers.
Surely if you are going to adopt a patern it would be better to bet after a squence of losses at least then you have missed the losses not any winners
I was told a system were you back the favourite,after one lost… Not skip a race,go to any meeting if the first favourite goes down then you back the fav in the next and so forth,on average 1 favourite wins in 3 if you back the favourite after one lost the strike rate is going to shoot up.
Just to add, I have never done this system but with a little bit of tweaking i am sure this could be a winner
Thanks for you interesting article would you have placepot method where you can use 6 or7 different forms or how can i constuct my bets app Richard south Africa
i was using a fav.method forty years ago when most race meetings were six races only if the fav.did not win the first three races then start on 4th race with 1 point if lost 5th race 2pts 6th race 3pts stop at winner as soon has fav won in sequence then stop regards ron.g