Today we have a guest post from Michael Wilding, who is a big bettor using something called Database Handicapping, which is a ratings based method.
At the end of the article there are links for some free ratings software and a system to use with the software…
If you have ever bet on a horse then the chances are you are going to have used a rating. You may have even used more than one!
In this article I want to discuss what the purpose of a rating is.
The performance of a horse is very difficult to interpret. If it wasn’t then everybody would be doing it. The reason that it is difficult to interpret is because there are a lot of variables that are tough to measure and we must make some kind of judgment on them.
There is no right or wrong judgment. Only ones that make profit and ones that don’t. The kinds of tough variables are…
Class – how would you define this and what does it actually mean?
Speed – lots of changing variables, which should you take into account?
Form – is the horse actually better than one it beat or was it having a bad day?
Conditions – do the conditions make a difference to the horse
If you look at one horse and consider all of these variables, then 10 people could have ten different opinions!
Who is right and who is wrong?
Nobody is wrong, because it is just an opinion. Ultimately we won’t know who was right until the race is finished.
As punters our job is to learn how to make good judgments on the different factors that go into a horse race. We do not need to become perfect, we just need to be better than the majority of other bettors. If we can succeed in that then we are going to make a profit.
Remember, you do not need to be perfect, you only need to be better than the majority to make a profit.
To make a good judgment we require a lot of time to go through all the details of all the runners in the race. We need to take everything into account, make notes and then go through those notes to see how each runner compares to all the other runners. Once we have done this we can begin to see which horses we think may have a chance of winning the race. But…
…sometimes we do all of this and see that the race is so competitive there is no point in betting.
But we’ve already spent hours of time to realize that!
This is where ratings come in. There are two main purposes in them.
1. To measure a specific factor for a horse that is hard to understand
2. To be able to analyse a race significantly faster
The first purpose enables us to put a number on those factors that we find hard to make a judgment on. Humans find it much easier to critically analyse if they have boundaries. Almost no factor in horse racing has these boundaries, we can discuss them and have largely differing opinions. By using ratings we have now put a boundary on the factor and made it easier for us to interpret.
The second purpose of the rating is to allow us to develop a method of selecting horses that reduces the analysis time significantly. Form reading can take up to an hour or more per race. By utilizing ratings and putting boundaries around the information we can reduce this to just minutes or even automate it.
Now that you know the purpose of a rating we can begin to use them more effectively and efficiently by asking them to do what they are supposed to do rather than expecting them to do something they can’t.
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Free Ratings Software. Michael has developed software that links to the same ratings that he uses for his betting. The software comes with a system to help you make the most of the ratings. Click Here to Download.
Today's Selection courtesy of Value Backing Extra
Catterick 1.40 Brunswick Gold win bet 4`1 Bet365 BOG
the link to the free ratings software does not work