Todays’ article has been written by Kieran Ward, professional gambler, tipster and betting blogger over at www.makeyourbettingpay.co.uk
Yesterday, we established that Betfair markets in the few minutes before a race goes off are by far the most accurate guide we have to a horse’s true chance of winning a race.
Now, at first glance it would seem of little use to know that Betfair is our most accurate guide to true probability – when it only becomes truly accurate in the final few minutes before the race.
Surely by that time all the value prices have gone?
Well, yes they have.
However simply knowing that the prices on Betfair are becoming progressively more accurate throughout the day, points us towards a very simple method of ensuring we are getting value on our bets.
If, earlier in the day, we can identify and back those horses that are shortening in price and are therefore likely to be shorter on Betfair in those final moments before the race – we have automatically found value.
Remember that sentence – therein lies the key to long term betting profits.
As long as we can identify horses that will end up a shorter price on Betfair at the off, than the price we are taking now – we cannot fail to make money in the long term!
Now, identifying those horses, with any accuracy, is easier said than done. It can be achieved in a number of ways and you are best searching out a method that suits you
Here’s one method that I use:
Each morning I have a good idea of a fair price for all the runners I am interested in based on form study, trainer stats/jockey stats, my own ratings and a variety of other indicators.
I then monitor the Betfair and bookmaker prices throughout the day to identify whether my opinion is being confirmed/refuted by the markets. This will involve detailed analysis and prediction of price movements based on a variety of indicators.
What’s key in all this is I’m rarely trying to identify the winner of a race. I’m simply using market analysis to identify the horses that are likely to go off at a shorter price than they are currently available at. Having found that value, the winners take care of themselves in the long run.
The analysis of price trends will not be right all the time – that’s impossible – but it doesn’t need to be. As long as it is right most of the time, profits are guaranteed.
In conclusion, finding value is the route to long-term profitability and I hope that my observations on the Betfair markets make finding value that little bit easier for you.
Today's Selection
Lingfield 3.05 Khawatim – win bet – 13/8 Paddy Power