Today's guest post is another regular contributor to the Betting Insiders report and that is Dave Renham.
Dave has taken a look at the stats for horses that are running for a new stable.
This is a factor that figures in one of my own systems so I was interested to see that Dave ended up with a similar view to myself.
Here's Dave…
The raw figures for horses having their first run for a new stable do not make happy reading.
There have been 13734 such runners over the pat 6 seasons and only 1021 have won, which is a measly 7.4% strike rate. Backing them all would have made a loss of 34% on moneys invested.
On first look backing trainers on a first run for a trainer doesnt seem like much of a strategy.
My further investigation found that age nor racetype really makes much difference to the results and that although favourites did make a profit it was only 1.5% return on investment and all other market positions lose.
Further investigation into the horses finishing position last time out and days since last run, didnt help.
And month of the year was not a factor either.
But there was one factor that did make a difference and it is as you might expect.
Some trainers are adept at winning with their new charges and regularly manage to win with them first time.
I have identified 30 such trainers for the Betting Insiders members and below I've shared the top five from that table.
LM Cumani
DRC Elsworth
CG Cox
M Johnston
Roger Varian
Together they have managed a strike rate of 29.8% and a return on investment of 55%.
You can read the full article in this months Betting Insiders report.
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Today's Selections courtesy of Betting Insiders
Ling 1500 Verse Of Love (3/1 Coral)
Yarm 1640 Silver Alliance (2/1 Gen)
I have a similar system showing huge profits going back many years with 42% min. S/R.
Last year 600 pts. profit at ISP level stakes.
2013 to date is 169 points.
All results can be proved.
Interested? email me