So today I am getting started on the job of researching individual trainers at individual courses when their novice hurdlers step up in class.
I'm going to start off with Nicky Henderson, simply because he has the most runners of the trainers that we have selected for this system.
It may be a case the Nicky's charges are over-bet because of his status, but we'll look at the data and see what we can find.
Because we are drilling down deeper and deeper the number of runners meeting a set of criteria will be less and less and it may be tricky to determine if a strike rate and profit is significant or not.
When looking at which courses are most profitable for Nicky Henderson, novice hurdlers that are upped in class, I have only looked at courses where there have been at least 10 qualifiers in the last 10 years.
Here's the table…
What jumps out is the huge profit (ROI) and strike rates at Huntingdon, Kempton and Ludlow.
Nicky Henderson is based in Upper Lambourn which is on the M4 and relatively convenient for the top class venues of Newbury, Cheltenham, Ascot, Kempton and Sandown.
Of the courses listed above Huntingdon is the furthest at around 100 miles from base.
I'm not sure if we should read something into the class of the tracks, I suppose I'm surprised that Towcester isnt in the profit list, but the stats don't lie. This is definitely how it panned out in the past, let's hope it can steer us towards some winners in the future.
Today's Selection
5.10 Pontefract Dark Ruler – win bet – 5/1 Bet Victor
Great stats again !! and really looks like a viable micro-system with those 3 tracks.
Good shout with DARK RULER tip as well.
Thanks & Thanks.
Would love to see the stats for the lesser known trainers as well,as I’m sure their odds will be a lot better?
Cheers Kenny, I will get to the lesser trainers…
By the way Dark Ruler was selected because it came from a trainer who has a good record on the softer ground and it had a reasonable draw.
Dave
It is also clear that the novice hurdlers of Nicky Henderson seem to perform significantly better at right-handed tracks.
The strike rate at Cheltenham is not one to get too enthused about.