Today I've been looking for inspiration in a book called DIY Punting.
I first read this back in 2010 and every now and then I pick it up when I'm looking for ideas.
Two things caught my eye this time.
One was the chapter on courses and specifically how some courses have unique difficulties for runners. This caused me to bring up course winner stats at Horse Race Base to see if any particular track was profitable for previous course winners.
Aintree was the only one that stood out with a small profit.
Later in the book I was reading about jockeys. The author Terry Burke talks about the skill needed to read a race and about horsemanship etc.
This made me think that if some courses are particularly difficult then a jockey with course wins must be important also.
Of course for the big tracks most jockeys will have some course wins, but I punched in a request for horses with at least one course win and jockeys with at least 11 course wins.
These are the tracks that show a profit. I don't think it's a system, yet, but is a line of enquiry worth pursuing.
There is racing at Yarmouth today and the following runners meet the criteria.
2.40 Caramelita*, Oh So Spicy, Ray of Joy
3.10 Semayyel
3.45 Daghash*, Tuscania*
4.20 Barwick
5.25 Kelvingrove*
If I add a rule that the horse must have won on the going then those with an * no longer qualify.
If you have some thoughts as to where I should go next with this let me know in the comments.
Lay Debutants
These are now showing a loss after a bad day yesterday, I will be sticking with them but may move to a weekly summary of the results until I have a big file of live results to share.
14:10:00 Yarmouth 6 Munaaser
14:25:00 Listowel 6 Screenshot (IRE)
14:25:00 Listowel 7 Show Your Face (IRE)
14:25:00 Listowel 8 Tar Isteach (IRE)
14:30:00 Beverley 6 Marquesa Naranja (IRE)
14:30:00 Beverley 10 Red Wifey (IRE)
15:00:00 Beverley 11 Tinchy Ryder
17:05:00 Sandown 7 Mrs Micawber
17:05:00 Sandown 8 Norway Cross
19:45:00 Kempton 1 Be My Icon
19:45:00 Kempton 5 Jordan Princess
19:45:00 Kempton 6 Nibbling (IRE)
19:45:00 Kempton 12 Stereo Love (FR)
19:45:00 Kempton 13 Tioga Pass
Today's Selection
Yarmouth 4.20 Barwick – eachway bet – 9/2 Bet Victor, Sky Bet
Are you taking current form into consideration? Also would the length of time between the last c&d win make any difference?
Lay betting does always appear to be a sound idea based on the fact that there can only be, usually, one winner and a load of beaten horses. The real fact is that for some reason lay betting can be a very real way of slowly losing more money than making a profit. The risk is too great and many bettors drift away from the idea once they experience burnt fingers.The maria staking method has only ever been the most successful plan to make money from lay betting, straight level stakes does not work and coupled with the lower SP figures that bookies/betfair are being allowed to use these days, it does seem that at times, the betting on horses is a mugs game….but we still keep on trying
Great insights and information as ever .. thanks :O)
just wondering which database you are accessing and other than proform can you recomend any to me ? i would like to speed up my selection processing time .
many thanks
brian
Dataform is always worth a closer look…the best was Sportsbook but they packed up last year due to illness…Adrian Massey has also gone so the better racing sites are slowly disappearing
Racing Interactive and Proform are generally too expensive for average punters
Hi mate
Very interesting results re jockey and horse course winners yesterday
More info please