We have two more sire micro systems today, these are courtesy of reader Simon French who commented on yesterday's post with two sire systems of his own.
Let's look at the first of those sires, and that is Dom Alco (FR).
The first thing I notice when I look at Dom Alco progeny is that you could've backed them all to date and made a level stake profit (5% ROI). So that's a good sign.
Simon has just two additional rules, which are the horse age which must be between 5 and 8 years old and the race distance which must be between 2 mile 6 furlongs and 3 mile 1 furlong.
This gives the following results.
Runs = 187
Wins = 45
Strike Rate = 24.06%
Profit = 70.96
Return on Investment = 37.95%
The only thing I would say about this one is that the profit last year was lower than previous years, so I'll be looking for some signs that this is still going to be profitable in the future.
The next system bets Dubawi (IRE) progeny and there are a lot of them.
Backing all is a break even proposition.
The rules that Simon suggests are course equals Southwell (AW), age equals 3 to 5 and distance equals 5 furlongs to a mile.
This gives the following results.
Runs = 44
Wins = 18
Strike Rate = 40.91%
Profit = 62.09
Return on Investment = 141.11%
Again, this one had a poor 2013.
I will definitely be following both over the coming weeks, but will save my money until I have see some good live results.
Thanks Simon, I've got a spare copy of Value Backing by Carl Nicholson sitting on my desk which I'd be happy to send you. Email me your address and I'll pop it in the post.
Today's Selection courtesy of Betting Insiders
Southwell 3.40 Arr Kid – win bet – 11/4 Betfred
I think you will be doing the right thing by paper trading first with your progeny all weather systems.
I’ve been paper trading a progeny system since december 2012 & for the first 12 mths it returned some very good profits, but since the big money investment was introduced for this year it is not doing anywhere near as good in comparison to the previous year. I think bigger yards & better horses are being targeted at the all weather now?
which is fair enough, but AW is the bread & butter for a lot of small trainers and I think it could have a negative effect on them, maybe even to the extent they just have to give it up?
I’ve read about those two micro systems before. Nick Pullen published them in Racing Angles. How about coming up with something original???