Today’s article has been written by Kieran Ward, professional gambler, tipster and betting blogger over at www.makeyourbettingpay.co.uk
In the coin toss example in yesterdays article, we realised that it would be very hard to find a bookmaker offering a value price about an event with easily calculated, fixed probabilities.
But what happens if we are looking at an event where there are a huge number of factors that can influence the final result – ground conditions, fitness, class, stamina, pace, speed, determination, draw, jumping ability, toughness, breeding – on and on ad infinitum.
A horse race, for example.
Would it be quite so easy for the bookmaker to set prices with the same accuracy as in the coin toss example?
Are the true probabilities involved as easily calculated in a horse race as they are in a simple event like a coin toss?
Of course not.
There is margin for errors in such a complex event – sometimes huge errors.
Bookmakers employ odds compilers whose job it is to assess the myriad factors mentioned above and create odds that reflect the true probability of any horse winning a race. These odds are then tightened to create an over round – the method by which the bookmaker locks in his profit if he balances his book.
I won’t go into the over-round in any great detail here. There are some excellent articles freely available online that explain it – in fact I’ve found a decent explanation to save you the trouble of hunting for one:
http://www.bettingmarket.com/overround.htm
In most instances, the odds compilers are very good at their jobs (though not in all as the hole in one gang so profitably demonstrated) and to expose any flaws in their odds, we need to be at least as knowledgeable and experienced. Where we have an advantage over the odds compilers is our ability to pick and choose the races we get involved in.
They need to get every price right, we only need to find the odd wrong price.
If we specialise in a particular type of horse racing, our chances of knowing more than the odds compiler are increased.
For many years I specialised in big field handicaps – the kind of races that most professional punters hate – because I always found there was a lot of potential in such difficult to evaluate events.
Initially, and for many years, my hunt for value led me to compile my own odds for each and every race I wanted to get involved in. This is an incredibly valuable skill and anybody taking their punting seriously is well advised to learn it.
There are numerous articles available online where you can pick up clear, concise advice on how to compile your own odds. I’ve found a really good thread on The Racing Forum that explains some methods of converting your opinion in a race into odds and probabilities:
http://www.theracingforum.co.uk/horse-racing-forum/viewtopic.php?forum_uri=&t=84941&start=
Please note here that you will need to find a reliable, accurate method of formulating your opinion before you will be able to create reliable and accurate odds! You need to be confident in your opinion and that will only come with time, experience and some past results!
Once you formulated your own prices about an event (and you trust those prices), finding value in the bookmakers odds will be a walk in the park.
However there are drawbacks in creating your own odds – the biggest of which is the time consuming nature of the process. Even working at it full-time, I would often only have time to analyse 3 or 4 races a day. As a result, the number of value opportunities I was able to find was limited. If the number of opportunities are limited, you need to stake more on each one of them to get decent profits – exposing yourself to greater single event risk.
As a result I was always on the hunt for quicker, easier ways of locating value – that way I could find more opportunities, turn my money over faster and create greater profits – at the same time exposing myself to less risk.
The perfect win-win – but could I find it?
Tomorrow I will be looking at a quicker, simpler way of identifying value.
Today's Selection
Ayr 1.10 One for Hocky – each way bet – Sky Bet 12/1