Windsor Draw Bias?

We had a reader question in last week in response to one of the draw bias articles we published, so today I am going to try and answer that.

Here's the question…

Hi chaps,

I read your page every day.I was interested in the draw bias features you posted re Pontefract.

As a follow on does or is there a bias for all race tracks or just certain ones?

Just a query – note the card at Windsor tonight (16/06/2014).7 races and four winners from stall 9 at odds to sp of 5/1, 16/1, 16/1 and 9/2 £375 profit to £10 stakes.

For the record the winners in order came as follows –

Stall 9, 6, 11, 9, 9, 8, 9

All the best
James

Thanks James, a great question. I have a copy of the Value Backing paperback here, if you email the TGH Trading email address with your postal address I'll send it to you

(If any other readers have questions that result in an article published here or want to write an article themselves, I have other goodies to give away

Is there a bias for all tracks, I would say no, not a repeatable consistent bias that we can make money from.

It's not in the best interest of the course to have a bias and if possible they will work to remove any bias that occurs.

Regarding a Windsor draw bias, I don't know if there is a bias, so let's look at some numbers to see if this is a one off anomaly or something we can profit from.

So the first thing I did was to look at the stall stats for Windsor over the last 10 years when 9 or more ran.

Obviously if I looked at all races the stats would be skewed towards the lower stalls when less than 9 ran.

Here's the results for all stalls…

Nothing significant there, with a minimum of 9 runners you would expect stalls 1 – 9 to have similar strike rates and they do all being between 8 – 10%.

So next I looked at stall 9 broken down by number of runners in the race…

This is interesting and a little strange.

First off I see 8 runners races with stall 9 horses, so I guess this is where a horse is withdrawn, so I'm thinking we can say that where there were 9 horses declared to run then backing stall 9 is profitable.

Because looking at the above table we can see profit when 8 run and when 9 run and an increased strike rate.

What I'm thinking now is that there is a bias at Windsor and that maybe it is towards the highest stall in the race and that maybe in 8 runner races stall 8 has an advantage and in 7 runner races stall 7 etc.

So that's where I'm going to leave it for today, there is a meeting at Windsor on Saturday and I will write some more on this before then.

Today's Selection 

3.45 Beverley Gambol – eachway bet – 7/1 Paddy Power