Today we have a regular weekly catch up with Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com
Betting systems really fascinate me especially horse racing ones.
It’s probably the main reason I have been creating them for over 12 years.
There are plenty of ideas about how to find winners (or losers) and creating systems is not always the most popular solution.
Many people believe the only way to actually pick a horse to follow in a race is to judge it against every other runner. Look for reasons why one selection has a better chance than all the others.
Although I do agree with this idea it’s not an easy thing to do and those that are most successful at it have spent a lot of time analyzing races and honing their skills.
Systems still take time to research, create and test but once you find something that appears profitable it can become a lot easier and quicker to get your daily selections.
And as I prefer automation it stands to reason this will be my favourite way of finding winners.
Anyway I thought over the next 3 articles I would give you an insight into how this “nerds” brain works (hmm not to sure you want to know) when he is trying to develop a system.
The first thing you are going to need is results.
There are plenty of sites about which allow you to analyse past data to see if you can find a way of picking winners.
Even our Grey Horse Bot members have access to our own growing archive of 230,000 + runs.
I have probably mentioned this before (I tend to repeat myself) that you must remember when you use past data it may contain information that you wouldn’t have known about until either in-play or after the event.
I tend to mention “number of runners” as an example.
Until the actual off, we have no way of knowing how many runners actually started the race.
SP and BSP are not available until in-play so you can only use these as a guide to the profitability of a system.
Until you actually test the system you will have no idea if you can actually get anywhere near to the profit you were expecting.
One of the questions I tend to get a lot is “Where do you start? How do you come up with the ideas for research?”
It’s a good question…
I tend to have 3 main ways of finding an idea.
Other peoples ideas.
Things I have noticed
Rating systems.
Other peoples ideas
Nope I don’t mean steal someone else’s system. What interest me is that sometimes in a forum, blog post, article or just during a conversation someone may mention a small triaval fact like…
“Beaten favourites do well when…”
Or
“Have you ever looked at 2 year olds on a AW running for the first time”
Or
“I have heard 4th LTO doing really well at this course….”
You get the idea.
I normally write these ideas down and check them out later.
Normally you end up finding out that there isn’t any profit in the idea or that there was just a trend that someone may have noticed that didn’t last long.
In next weeks article I will look at the other 2 points and
Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.
Malcolm
“The Nerd”
Find out more about the Greyhorse Bot at http://greyhorsebot.com
Today's Selection
6.40 Yarmouth Authorized Too – win bet – 15/8 Bet 365, Paddy Power