Today we have an excerpt from an article that Mark Foley wrote for the current issue of the Betting Insiders Report.
Every month Mark shares five key trainer trends and below we have one of the five for May.
For more micro systems like this join the Betting Insiders Club, if you just want tips based on sound data then check out Mark's Trainer Trends service.
Tom Dascombe
Tom Dascombe – 2yo runners priced 9/1 or shorter: Dascombe rode 96 winners for Martin Pipe, before spending 3 years as assistant trainer to Ralph Beckett and then a further 2 in South Africa/Dubai working for Mike De Kock. At the 2003 Dubai Racing Carnival, 8 of the 22 De Kock horses that Dascombe trained won, winning $3.6 million in prize money.
Returning to England in 2005 he set up in his own operation at Lambourn and after 4 successful years received an offer from Michael Owen and Betfair founder Andrew Black to move to Manor House Stables. This came at a time when Dascombe was worried about finding buyers for the eight 2yos he intended buying; backed by his new partners he was given a budget which meant he ended up with 50 yearlings at an average price of £38,000 each. Expect Tom Dascombe to be eating at the elite trainer’s table in a few short years.
However, it hasn’t all been plain sailing and it took a while to work out how to train horses from the new state of the art base. Staff had to be recruited, routines established and with a better quality of horses, new targets found. Since that 1st year results have improved each year in both the number of winners and prize money registered and regular patterns are now beginning to emerge. The highlight has been the 3 Royal Ascot winners, firstly with Rhythm Of Light and Brown Panther in 2011 and more recently the Queen Mary with Ceiling Kitty.
Since 2009 the stable have had 33 winners in May and the 2yos were the superstars winning 21 of their 93 races for a 45% profit. Only 4 of the 43 runners to go off at a double figure SP won and those at 9/1 or less were the ones to focus on. The table over page illustrates that Dascombe failed to have a juvenile winner in May until 2008, but enjoyed a successful 2009 before the move and apart from that dodgy first year the 2yos have served connections well with 11 winners in May in the last two years alone.
The market was a good guide with all but one of the 6 runners to go off at 6/4 or shorter winning and the outright favourites winning 9 of their 13 races, for a most impressive 76% ROI. The runners priced 4/1 or shorter won 12 of their 27 races.
The fairer sex were the ones to follow; the fillies had a far better record than the colts and geldings providing 15 of the 21 winners. The strike rate was far superior as was the ROI, compared to the colts and geldings. The figures have been so far superior that you have to believe it is a deliberate ploy and that the stable’s long term target is to breed their own runners from high class mares and fillies.
The debutants did okay winning 5 of their 35 races for a 7% loss and it was the runners having their second run who were the ones to focus on as they won 9 races from 29 for an impressive 52% ROI. Stable jock Richard Kingscote rode all but 5 of the winners (16 from 57, for a 92% ROI).
Tom Dascombe: The 2yo runners priced 9/1 or less:
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Today's Selection courtesy of Betting Insiders
Pont 1555 Heading North (7/2 Hills, PP)
Sadly I hang my gloves up. Itches become too painful
Sadly I hang my gloves up. It has become too painful.