This morning I'm trying to get a handle on where I want to go with a new National Hunt system, so I'm looking at some facts and figures in the hope that an idea of angle jumps out at me.
So I've logged into Horse Race Base and loaded up all Hurdle runs in 2013 and so far in 2014 and I'm looking at the trainers to see where the best returns are.
If I look at trainers that have had more than 75 runs since January 1st 2013 and sort them by strike rate, then the trainer with the highest strike rate is Willie Mullins…
Runs = 641
Wins = 186
Strike Rate = 29%
Loss at industry SP = -124.03
ROI = – 19.35 %
I'd say a strike rate of 29% from all hurdlers sent out is huge. A loss of 19.35% on turnover is a lot, and although I'm sure that can be improved by betting at Betfair SP I would imagine a lot of these were favourites and that the Betfair SP returns wouldn't be a great deal better.
Interestingly, just down the list a bit is Nicky Henderson with a 24% strike rate but only a 7% loss on turnover…
Runs = 525
Wins = 125
Strike Rate = 24%
Loss at industry SP = -36.75
ROI = – 7 %
So my next task is going to be to have a closer look at the hurdlers of these two trainers.
First off, I'm interested in how many runners Willie Mullins actually sends over to the UK and whether they perform better or worse than his Irish runners.
The answer is that only 61 came to the UK in the period and the strike rate with these 61 was 21% and the loss of turnover was 29%.
So the profit and runners will be in Ireland.
The table below shows the breakdown of the Irish runners by track, you will see there are some huge strike rates at some of the courses…
Next I looked at position in the odds market and this is interesting out of the 580 runs that Willie had in Ireland since January 1st 2013 a whopping 469 were ranked in the first four in the betting market.
How many that were not in the first four in the betting do you think went on to win?
Well according to Horse Race Base the answer is none!
In fact if we only bet Willie Mullins hurdlers that run in Ireland and are in the first three in the betting then we have a system that just edges into profit at Industry SP.
If we only look at those ridden by Paul Townend or Ruby Walsh, who take most of the rides then we have the following figures since January 1st 2013…
Runs = 331
Wins = 139
Strike Rate = 41.99 %
Profit at industry SP = 22
ROI = 6.65%
That's a great strike rate and if you can't stomach losing runs then these rules will find you bets that see you collecting regularly, but these horses are over bet, especially when Ruby is on board, so the profit isn't huge.
Today's Selection
2.40 Redcar Mixed Message – win bet – 5/6 Bet 365
always look forward to your emails very informative. i thought you would of said something about the top four tracks , the strike rates for them are very good what happens if you take ruby walsh and paul townends rides at these tracks ?? cheers thomas
Ditto Thomas !!
Also not including outside top 3 & 4 in the betting.
And with or without Ruby & Paul results.
Following on from a previous thread, at those top 4 tracks does first time up in class throw anything up?
Hi Dave,
Seems to me that the more we have an idea of a system & the more we turn the screw to reap a maximum profit with fewest losers, then the more we end up with very few runners & ultimately a Micro System?
You must have dozens of Micro Systems that produce very few selections & profit, but the profit doesn’t really make the work/time involved worth pursuing??
Which makes sense, I mean who has the time to go through maybe dozens of Micro Systems every day? and as far as I am aware there’s no bot out there to flag up selections for multiple Micro Systems & if there is please tell me where I can get it !!!
My BIG IDEA is:
Dig out your top Micro Systems that are proven to work & say that you have 30 of them, maybe more? With your contacts & blog followers ask individuals to sign up to diligently doing just one of them a day & sending you the selection/s daily if there is any or not.
You in turn could sent the complete list of daily selections out to all who have participated?
For someone like myself who believes that unless your in the know, Micro Systems are probably the best chance you have of making money long term at this game, then this simple idea seems too good to be true?
Would be really interested to know how you feel about this idea??
Cheers,
Kenny.
Where can I read other comments from Dave French?
Rad